Bologna VS Napoli

Key analyses Strength & Form Comparison Bologna: With a strong momentum of 6 consecutive wins Bologna: With 6 consecutive victories, the team has a strong momentum to qualify for the Champions League, with outstanding performance in both attack and defence, averaging 52% of ball possession, creating a lot of counter-attacking opportunities with high-pressure pressing (third in PPDA value in Serie A), and contributing a total of 26 goals to the ‘Golden Triangle’ composed of Orsolini, Castro, and N'Doye. The home record is strong, 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 10 home matches, with an average of only 0.87 goals conceded. Napoli: The defending champions have suffered a decline in form recently, with only 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 10 matches, and a weak performance on the road (1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 away matches). Attacking side relies on Romelu Lukaku (8 assists to lead the league), but Osmeen's absence due to injury has weakened the depth of the front line, while the defensive side concedes 0.8 goals per game, but there is a hidden danger of overhead kicks. Tactical Gaming Bologna: Playing a 4-2-4 high pressing system through Bologna: 4-2-4 high-pressing system, through intensive midfield running and fast counterattack to tear apart the opponent's defence, set-piece conversion rate as high as 18%, header success rate of 65%, against the short board of Napoli's defence. Napoli: tried the three centre-back system but the effect was poor, relying on the side blasting and set-pieces, Kvaratskhelya's passing accuracy suppressed Bologna's wingbacks (3.2 successful passes per game), but the midfield was not enough to control the game. Injuries and key factors Bologna's hidden danger: star striker Castro is alone due to injury in Bologna's pitfalls: star striker Castro is training alone due to an injury, which could affect the stability of the attack; right back Calabria's ankle sprain has weakened the defence on the wings. Napoli's disadvantage: Conte's suspension and the assistant coach's command of the field, tactical adjustments are limited; the temporary combination of centre-backs lacks tacit understanding, and the defence of overhead kicks is doubtful. History and psychological advantage Bologna advantage: the last 2 home games against Bologna are unbeaten in their last 2 home matches against Napoli (1 win, 1 draw), and beat them 2-0 on the road in the first round of this season. Napoli's disadvantage: although they have a superior head-to-head record (3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 matches), their psychological advantage has been weakened by their recent 33% win rate on the road against stronger teams. Pre-match points Whether Bologna can extend their winning streak: they need to maintain their defensive intensity and counter-attacking efficiency, and avoid slacking off due to the lead. Can Napoli go cold: rely on Romelu Lukaku's key goals and set-piece tactics, but need to improve their midfield control. Summary Bologna's overall form and home advantage is obvious, while Napoli is limited by injuries and away performance. If Bologna can seize the opportunity of counter-attacks and defend solidly, it is likely to win by a small margin.