2025 MLB betting: Nick Kurtz now a massive favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year

Nick Kurtz, a 22-year-old Oakland Athletics first baseman, gained widespread attention after hitting four home runs in a historic game on Friday night, becoming the first MLB rookie to achieve this feat. This performance followed his recognition as the AL Player of the Week.

Initially, Kurtz was a long shot for AL Rookie of the Year with 80-1 odds at BetMGM, trailing favorite Jasson Domínguez of the New York Yankees (+600). Despite an early-season slump where he went 0-for-21 in May, Kurtz rebounded to become baseball's top hitter by July.

By June 14, Kurtz's odds improved to 14-1 (tied for second-best), but he remained a significant underdog to Athletics teammate Jacob Wilson, who held -1000 odds (approximately 90.9% implied probability). As recently as July 21, Wilson was the +100 favorite at BetMGM, while Kurtz stood second at +160, with Wilson attracting 33% of the betting money and representing the sportsbook's largest liability.

Following Friday's four-homer game, Kurtz surged to become the odds-on favorite for the first time this season, now at -2000 odds—a 95% implied probability of winning the award. This dramatic shift marks a remarkable storyline in both baseball and sports betting for the remainder of the season.