Analyzing the 2025 Rookie TE Class for Redraft (Fantasy Football)

The article builds on previous analysis showing rookie tight ends' (TEs) average draft positions (ADPs) strongly predict their end-of-season performance ranking, especially for ADPs of 30 or better. Analysis of 2018-2023 data revealed two key points: 67% of highly touted rookie TEs met or exceeded expectations, and lower-ranked TEs exhibited slightly more upside than downside. Consequently, highly ranked rookie TEs are deemed safe bets, while lower ADP TEs are very risky and best avoided.

The author evaluates the 2025 rookie TE class using this framework. Tyler Warren (IND, ADP 12.7) and Colston Loveland (CHI, ADP 12.3) are highlighted as top prospects drafted within the top 15 TEs. Both are expected to perform at that level as they are slated for starting roles. Mason Taylor (NYJ, ADP 23.0) is identified as a potential draft steal who could perform as a top 20 TE. Elijah Arroyo (SEA, ADP 32.5) is also noted as a value pick outside the top 30 ADP, projected to surpass AJ Barner on the Seahawks' depth chart and outperform his ADP.

Terrance Ferguson (LAR, ADP 32.5) is viewed less favorably due to a crowded TE room with veterans Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, making significant impact unlikely. The remaining rookie TEs listed (Harold Fannin Jr., Oronde Gadsden II, Gunnar Helm, Thomas Fidone II, Caleb Lohner, Mitchell Evans - all ADP 38.0 or 40+) are recommended as players to avoid on draft day. While acknowledging potential "diamonds in the rough," the author advises targeting these lower ADP players via waivers after the draft rather than spending late-round picks on them.