Betting the Home Run Derby: Cal Raleigh is the favorite, but look out for Oneil Cruz

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby features seven first-time participants, making it one of the most intriguing contests in recent years. Matt Olson, replacing the injured Ronald Acuna Jr., is the sole player with previous Derby experience and will compete in front of his home fans in Atlanta. Other notable participants include Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (the current MLB home run leader with 36), James Wood, Junior Caminero, and Oneil Cruz, who hit the hardest home run of the season.

The event format has changed, scrapping the bracket system in favor of three rounds: a first round, semifinals, and finals. In the first round, each player has three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many home runs as possible. Players also earn a bonus period lasting until they record three non-home run swings, with an extra out awarded for any home run hit 425 feet or farther during this bonus time. The top four home run totals advance to the semifinals, with ties broken by the longest home run hit. The semifinals and finals give players two minutes or 27 swings, and ties are broken by a 60-second swing-off.

Analysis of key participants focuses on their season home run statistics, strengths, weaknesses, and predictions: Cal Raleigh (38 HRs, Long: 440 ft) is the betting favorite. His significant in-game power and calm demeanor are seen as advantages, potentially translating well to the Derby format. However, concerns exist due to the historical lack of a catcher winning the event and potential fatigue from playing nearly every game. He is predicted to reach the semifinals. Oneil Cruz (16 HRs, Long: 463 ft) possesses exceptional power, evidenced by his record 122.9 mph exit velocity home run (hardest-hit ball in the Statcast era) and leading average bat speed. His raw power and bat speed make him a strong contender. The potential drawback is his tendency for a flatter swing in games, which might result in line drives instead of homers in the rapid Derby setting. He is predicted to win the entire event. James Wood (24 HRs, Long: 451 ft) ranks highly in key power metrics (bat speed, exit velocity, barrel rate) and possesses easy power to all fields. He is noted for his Judge-like build and power profile.