Jaguars' road to an AFC South title is simple (but depends on one key variable)

The Houston Texans, having won the AFC South for two consecutive years, enter 2025 as division favorites. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars' offseason overhaul positions them as legitimate contenders, per NFL analyst Garrett Podell of CBS Sports.

Podell asserts Jacksonville's success hinges on quarterback Trevor Lawrence maintaining health—a challenge given his injury-plagued 2023–2024 seasons. With new coach Liam Coen boosting offensive strategy and Lawrence fit, the Jaguars (+300 division odds) could challenge Houston (+110 odds).

Despite Houston's strong 2024 defense, concerns linger: quarterback C.J. Stroud faces pressure after a lackluster season, compounded by unresolved offensive line weaknesses. Offseason signings (tackle Cam Robinson, guard Laken Tomlinson, trade for Ed Ingram) are deemed insufficient. Injuries to running back Joe Mixon (long-term absence likely) and receiver Tank Dell further strain the offense, even with backup Nick Chubb signed.

Conversely, Jacksonville fortified its roster: receivers Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown join Brian Thomas Jr., while running backs Bhaushul Tuten, Travis Etienne, and Tank Bigsby deepen the backfield. Offensive line improvements should enhance run and pass protection. Defensively, tackle Arik Armstead shifts inside alongside Maason Smith, with Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen bolstering the pass rush.

Ultimately, Lawrence's health remains the critical variable. If he avoids injury, the Jaguars could emerge as the division's most formidable threat; if not, their title hopes diminish significantly.