Matchup rankings: Judkins among those with favorable opponents, Hurts not so much

Tristan H. Cockcroft expresses fantasy optimism for Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 7 against the Cowboys, emphasizing that making tough lineup decisions in fantasy football often comes down to choosing players with superior matchups. He advises starting the player with the better weekly matchup when torn between similar options, highlighting the importance of evaluating positional advantages.

To determine the best and worst matchups, the article introduces matchup rankings, which provide a schedule-independent method for assessing defenses. These rankings order all 32 opposing defenses from most to least favorable for skill positions like quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, using adjusted fantasy points allowed (Adj. FPA). This metric calibrates points-allowed data based on the difficulty of the schedule faced, offering a fairer evaluation by showing how far a defense holds opponents above or below their average PPR fantasy points, with positive numbers indicating favorable matchups and negative numbers unfavorable ones.

A key caveat is that matchups are only one component of the rankings formula; not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable one avoided. For comprehensive weekly start/sit advice, the article recommends consulting ESPN's fantasy staff rankings. Specific player highlights include Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, who is favored due to his increased offensive role and a high-scoring projection against the Colts defense, which has struggled against top quarterbacks. Other recommended players are Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, and Baker Mayfield, while Jalen Hurts is advised as a matchup to avoid against the Vikings, who pose a tough challenge with strong defensive metrics against quarterbacks and goal-line rushes.

The article also explains the columns in the matchup rankings: "DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" rank team defenses by matchup strength, "Opp." indicates the Week 7 opponent, "Rk" shows the matchup ranking from 1 (toughest) to 32 (easiest), and "Adj. FPA" quantifies the fantasy points added or subtracted by the defense relative to opponents' averages.