The fantasy football running backs to draft – and those to avoid

The article discusses significant value drops among running backs in 2025 fantasy football projections, termed "Draft Chasms of Doom," influencing draft strategies like "Zero RB" (delaying first RB selection) or "Hero RB" (taking one elite RB early, then focusing on other positions). Graphs illustrating Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) projections show a distinct early drop-off at the position.

Christian McCaffrey projects as the top-scoring RB (314.1 points) despite a projection lower than his 2023 workload or pace, highlighting his immense value if healthy. However, due to injury risk, the author ranks him below the top tier (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley). Several Tier 2 RBs could reach Tier 1 with increased opportunity or better offenses.

The projections feature a significantly larger Tier 3 than the rankings. RB25 (Kaleb Johnson) ends Tier 4 in the rankings, reflecting many risky split backfields (players like RJ Harvey to J.K. Dobbins). Tier 4 consists of RBs in timeshares or high-end backups with RB2+ upside if the starter gets injured.

The author advocates drafting an early running back, aiming to secure a Tier 1 (projections) or Tier 1-2 (rankings) RB within the first two rounds. This is partly due to the NFL draft influx, leading to roughly half the league starting Week 1 with shared RB touches. The "Hero RB" approach is deemed smart this year, allowing managers to load up on WRs, an early QB/TE, and still acquire timeshare RBs later who might offer similar value to RBs drafted earlier.

While endorsing Hero RB, the author emphasizes not ignoring RB value if it presents itself in Rounds 3-6. Waiting too long, even correctly reasoning minimal drop-off exists for several picks, risks ending up with near-replacement-level players as your RB2. The strategy doesn't require waiting indefinitely if better value and team build emerge.