The Rule 5, the MVP and the Miz: How the Brewers became the hottest team in baseball

Two months ago, the Milwaukee Brewers were struggling significantly. After a loss to Pittsburgh on May 24th, they were in fourth place in the NL Central, three games below .500. Key players Christian Yelich and Joey Ortiz were underperforming, third base was an offensive weakness, and only Rhys Hoskins ranked well offensively league-wide. While Freddy Peralta pitched well, the rotation was unstable, having used 10 other starters, resulting in a staff ERA in the bottom third of MLB, with the bullpen ERA being worse than the Rockies and White Sox.

However, since May 25th, the Brewers have become the best team in baseball, compiling a 36-13 record, surpassing even the hot Toronto Blue Jays. This surge included an 11-game winning streak featuring six victories against the Dodgers and propelled them into a close race with the Cubs for the NL Central lead. Their playoff probability skyrocketed from 10.1% to 94.7%.

The turnaround stems from several key factors. A pivotal moment occurred on May 26th in Pittsburgh when rookie third baseman Caleb Durbin delivered a game-tying, two-out double in the eighth inning and scored the winning run, preventing a sweep. Durbin, acquired in an offseason trade, took over third base in mid-April and has since become a top-10 third baseman by fWAR, hitting well above average with solid defense.

Another crucial move was the April 7th trade sending prospect Yophery Rodriguez to Boston for Triple-A starter Quinn Priester. Priester joined the rotation and has been unbeatable since late May, winning all 10 of his starts while posting a 2.53 ERA over 57 innings, including impressive performances against the Dodgers and Mariners.

Offensive contributions also came from unexpected sources. Outfielder Isaac Collins, a minor league Rule 5 pick from Colorado, became the primary left fielder after an injury and has excelled. His crucial two-out, eighth-inning RBI in a close win against San Diego preceded a Durbin walk-off homer. Collins leads the team in WAR since May 25th, pairing elite defense (nearly leading MLB in five-star catches) with a 138 wRC+. Alongside resurgences from Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio, the Brewers' outfield now ranks fourth in MLB WAR.