What are Realistic Expectations for Joel Embiid in the 2025-26 Sixers Season?

The Philadelphia 76ers enter the upcoming NBA season as a major uncertainty after a disastrous 24-58 record last year. Despite a wide-open Eastern Conference and promising flashes from young players like V.J. Edgecombe and Jared McCain, the team's outlook hinges entirely on the health and performance of Joel Embiid.

Historically, the Sixers have been significantly better when Embiid plays (287-146 record, 66.3% win percentage) than when he is absent (104-163, 39.0% win percentage). However, last season broke this pattern: even when Embiid played, the team struggled, going just 8-11 in his 19 games and 7-8 in the 15 games he shared the court with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. Embiid was ineffective defensively and failed to elevate the team as usual.

Embiid missed the season's first nine games due to knee issues and a suspension for shoving a reporter. He played a career-low 19 games before being shut down for the season in February. This offseason, he underwent his second arthroscopic knee surgery in 14 months. While the front office expresses vague optimism about his return to form, even Embiid's own readiness level is uncertain.

Despite the development of a youthful core, the Sixers are heavily invested in Embiid. He is under contract for $55.2 million next season, followed by a three-year, $187.6 million extension with a player option for 2028-29. As the 31-year-old enters his 10th season, the article highlights the concerning track record for big men over 30 with knee or foot issues, setting up significant uncertainty about the team's best and worst-case scenarios.