Cold hard Chet Holmgren truth that recent pollsters will regret forgetting

Chet Holmgren has faced significant injury issues during his time with the OKC Thunder, participating in only 114 out of 246 possible regular-season games over three seasons—an availability rate of just 46.3%. Despite these setbacks, when healthy, he is regarded as one of the league's top defensive big men.

ESPN recently published a "Summer Forecast panel" discussion involving NBA reporters and analysts, predicting winners for future awards, including the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year. In the voting, Holmgren received only the third-most points (20), placing him far behind Victor Wembanyama (95 points) and Evan Mobley (31 points). The point system allocated 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 for second, and 1 for third.

This ranking is considered surprising and undervalues Holmgren's defensive impact. Statistically, he averaged 2.3 blocks per game and had a career defensive rating of 107. In the last season, he led the league in field goal percentage allowed on layups and dunks (minimum 200 attempts defended) and ranked third in defensive rating (105.6) among regular starters. Teams averaged only 107.3 points per 100 possessions and a 51.3% effective field goal percentage when he was on the court, placing him in the 95th and 93rd percentiles respectively.

Holmgren's defensive abilities are supported by his physical attributes—7-foot-1 height with a 7-foot-6 wingspan—along with high basketball IQ, athleticism, and continuous improvement. If he meets the 65-game minimum requirement to qualify for the Defensive Player of the Year award, he could strongly challenge the current favorites, especially if Wembanyama or Mobley fall short due to their own availability issues.