Erling Haaland: Man City striker hot favourite for Golden Boot

Erling Haaland has made a prolific start to the Premier League season, scoring nine goals in his first seven games for Manchester City. Although this is slightly below his record from the previous two seasons—11 goals in 2022-23 and 10 in 2023-24—he currently leads the Golden Boot race by three goals. Notably, none of his nine goals have come from penalties, enhancing the impressiveness of his achievement.

Haaland is considered a strong favorite for the Golden Boot due to two key factors: the volume and quality of chances he receives, and the slow starts of his usual competitors. His expected goals (xG) statistic, which measures the number of goals a player would typically score based on the chances they've had, shows that he is generating significantly more high-quality opportunities than any other player in the league. Even if his finishing were only average, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as anyone else.

Further analysis reveals that Haaland has taken 29 shots this season, 12 more than any other player. While his shot volume is consistent with previous seasons, the quality of his chances is unprecedented. His average xG per shot is 0.27, meaning historically, players convert such chances at a 27% rate. Among players with at least 10 shots, only Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances on average, largely due to simple tap-ins.