Thunder, Warriors, Clippers among NBA teams primed to defy preseason forecasts - The Athletic

The author discusses their approach to NBA preseason analysis, which involves comparing personal views on teams with the consensus, using Las Vegas win-total over/unders as a benchmark for public perception. These over/unders, while slightly biased toward optimism, serve as a useful proxy for mid-tier expectations.

Reflecting on last season's performance, the author notes that their revised projection model led to a successful 4-for-5 record in predicting teams that would exceed their over/unders. Specifically, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Atlanta Hawks surpassed expectations by significant margins, while the Phoenix Suns did not.

For the upcoming season, the author aims to select five teams likely to beat their over/under projections, beginning with two examples. The Oklahoma City Thunder, despite potential obstacles like injuries and reduced motivation, are expected to excel due to their unchanged roster, depth, and competitive Western Conference pressure, making a win total over 63 plausible.

The LA Clippers are another pick, with the author confident they will win at least 50 games despite age concerns or possible league penalties. Key factors include James Harden's durability, offseason additions like Chris Paul and Bradley Beal, improved depth with players like Brook Lopez, and addressing previous weaknesses, such as acquiring a legitimate power forward.