2025 NBA ATS player rankings: Nikola Jokić is the NBA's most valuable player against the spread

The author initiated a study to assess the value of NBA players to point spreads in betting, drawing a comparison to a previous survey on NFL quarterbacks. In the NFL, oddsmakers ranked starting quarterbacks by their impact on the point spread, highlighting that while other positions matter, the NBA's five-player lineup allows superstars to have a more pronounced effect on betting lines.

To determine this impact in the NBA, the author consulted seven oddsmakers from different sportsbooks, asking them to rank 56 players based on how much the point spread would shift if a player, not previously on the injury report, was declared out before a game. The responses were averaged to calculate a final point-spread value for each player.

Several factors influence these valuations, including the opponent, whether the game is in the regular season or playoffs, and the strength of the head coach, among other considerations, underscoring the complexity of determining player value in betting contexts.