Chet Holmgren has crystal clear path to winning Defensive Player of the Year

Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2025-26 NBA season, but Chet Holmgren of the OKC Thunder is a strong contender who could realistically claim the honor if certain factors align in his favor.

Holmgren's defensive performance is highly comparable to Wembanyama's, with advanced metrics indicating a narrow gap between them. As the anchor of the Thunder's historic defensive unit, Holmgren contributed to an elite defensive rating of 105.6, limited opponents to 107.3 points per 100 possessions, and achieved an effective field goal percentage of 51.3, ranking in the 95th and 93rd percentiles, respectively. He contested 93% of opponent shot attempts as the closest defender, the second-best mark in the league, and held opponents to just 33% shooting from the floor, the lowest rate of the season.

Additionally, Holmgren has shown steady improvements in boxing out and defensive rebounding, increasing from 10.3 defensive boards per 100 possessions in 2023-24 to 11.4 in 2024-25, indicating room for further growth that could enhance his defensive impact.

However, Wembanyama faces potential obstacles to his DPOY candidacy, including the San Antonio Spurs' poor team defensive ranking, which has not exceeded 21st in the league since his draft, and his health issues, such as a diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis that limited him to 46 games last season. Playing fewer than 65 games would render him ineligible for the award, regardless of his individual statistics.

If Wembanyama is unable to compete due to health or eligibility issues, Holmgren is positioned as the next top contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award.