Fading Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever When They Host The Atlanta Dream On Friday

Caitlin Clark, the 2025 WNBA All-Star Game captain for 'Team Clark', is experiencing a statistical regression in her sophomore season. Her scoring average has decreased to 17.4 points per game from 19.2 PPG as a rookie. Clark's true shooting percentage, which accounts for two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws, has fallen significantly from 58.3% to 51.3%, a drop of 70 percentage points. Her Player Efficiency Rating (PER) has also declined from 18.3 to 16.5.

Clark's struggles have been noticed by the betting market, resulting in her point prop for the upcoming game against the Atlanta Dream being set at 18.5, lower than the usual 19.5, with heavy betting interest on the Under. Contributing factors include injuries that have caused her to miss nine games this season. In her first game back after a hiatus of over two weeks, a loss to the Golden State Valkyries, Clark scored only 10 points on 33.3% shooting.

The article highlights concerns beyond scoring, noting that the Indiana Fever have a record of just 5-5 in games Clark plays. Despite having the third-highest usage rate in the WNBA, Clark averages a league-worst 5.7 turnovers per game, which is 2.1 more than the next closest player (Angel Reese). This raises the possibility that if Clark isn't fully healthy for the Dream game, she could negatively impact the Fever's performance.

Betting market trends further reflect skepticism about the Fever's prospects. Indiana opened as -130 favorites against Atlanta but the line moved down to -115, interpreted as sharp money favoring the Dream. The Fever also have a poor record against the spread (ATS) as home favorites this season, going 2-6, making betting against them (fading) at home a profitable strategy.