Fantasy Football Advice: Early First-Round Draft Picks (2025)

Expert consensus rankings compared to average draft position (ADP) help identify fantasy football draft targets and avoids. For 2025 first-round picks, current ADP shows minimal recent changes. Tyreek Hill's value rose slightly after the Jonnu Smith trade but remains outside the first round, while Christian McCaffrey, now healthy, has climbed to nearly a top-seven pick and could rise further by August if he stays healthy.

Selecting the wrong player first overall can ruin a fantasy season, as evidenced by McCaffrey's 2024 drafters. Analysis is provided for key first-round candidates: Ja'Marr Chase led all receivers in 2024 with 117 receptions, 1,612 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He outperformed Justin Jefferson by 2 full PPR points per game and scored more even with Tee Higgins healthy. Cincinnati's weak defense suggests continued pass-heavy usage, making Chase exceptionally reliable with back-to-back 100+ reception seasons.

Saquon Barkley dominated 2024 by rushing 330 more yards than any other back and scoring 15 touchdowns despite limited goal-line work. He finished as a top-five RB in seven weeks. Though his receptions hit a career-low (33), his efficiency in Philadelphia's offense compensated. Concerns exist about sustaining this efficiency after 400+ combined regular and postseason touches, as history shows RB1s rarely repeat (last: Priest Holmes in 2003).

Justin Jefferson maintains elite production despite quarterback instability, averaging 96.5 career receiving yards per game. He's been a top-five PPR receiver since 2021. However, playing with inexperienced QB J.J. McCarthy (who missed his rookie year) and competing for targets with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson could limit his upside.