The fantasy football running backs to draft – and those to avoid - The Athletic

The article discusses significant drops in running back value for 2025 fantasy football drafts, termed "Draft Chasms of Doom," influencing strategies like "Zero RB" (delaying RB selection) or "Hero RB" (drafting one elite RB early then focusing elsewhere). Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) projections show a distinct early drop-off at RB.

Christian McCaffrey is projected for 314.1 fantasy points (over 30 more than Jahmyr Gibbs at #2), though his projection is lower than his 2023 workload. Due to injury risk, McCaffrey is ranked below Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley in Tier 1. Several Tier 2 RBs could rise with increased opportunity or better offenses.

Tier 3 in projections is notably larger than in rankings, with RB25 (Kaleb Johnson) ending Tier 4. Many RBs in this range (e.g., RJ Harvey, J.K. Dobbins) are in risky timeshares. Tier 4 consists of backs in committees or high-upside backups who could become RB2+ if the starter is injured.

The author recommends drafting an RB from Tier 1 (projections) or Tiers 1-2 (rankings) within the first two rounds, partly because the NFL draft influx has led to half the league likely using shared backfields. A "Hero RB" strategy—securing one elite RB, then loading up on WRs, QBs, or TEs—is advised, as later-round timeshare RBs may offer comparable value to earlier picks.

While endorsing Hero RB, the author cautions against waiting too long for RBs if value exists in Rounds 3-6. Deferring multiple rounds risks ending up with near-replacement-level players as RB2, though Hero RB doesn’t require ignoring mid-round opportunities for optimal team construction.